Our F1 season predictions were probably wrong - and that’s tremendous

Last week, we did a podcast episode on AJontheLine, predicting the upcoming F1 season. And while it was enjoyable, with some exciting and amusing thoughts, I suspect that our predictions will be whole-heartedly wrong. But that’s tremendous.

While one may look at this poor foresight as a lack of knowledge or understanding, I look at it differently. It means that we are heading towards a fascinating season of Formula 1.

I put Red Bull as the fourth fastest car, but that looks wrong as they seem favourites now. Similarly, I put Alpine last, and they seem quick as I write during the first practice session of the season. 

I could see Charles Leclerc as one of the biggest favourites for the championship in that lightning-fast Ferrari, but how can I count out his teammate Carlos Sainz? He beat Leclerc last year and held his own against Max Verstappen back in their Toro Rosso days. The fastest Ferrari driver battle will be a spicy and tightly-contested spectacle - and it could decide the champion.

Mercedes look like they are genuinely struggling with ‘porpoising’ (listen to this podcast for more on that) but have a fast car if they can sort that out. Will they come back later in the season? Will their drivers, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, the legend and the apprentice, remain harmonious? They surely need to initially as they get their car back to the front.

McLaren is so hard to call as well. Surely Lando Norris can find his first victory and Daniel Ricciardo his form. However, those brake issues were less than ideal last week. Either way, it is so good to see the team in a good, stable place with plenty of sponsors.

Then there is the ‘midfield’, the most confusing of the lot. Any remaining team could be the best of the rest or better on any given weekend. Will Haas, having dropped their Russian money for an old friend, be the biggest surprise? Will Fernando Alonso get the championship battle he returned to F1 for? Will Alpha Tauri shock the world and be better than the midfield? Pierre Gasly was fastest in the first session of the year, and young Yuki Tsunoda looks ready to balance his unfiltered brilliance with maturity.

There are so many questions, and those above are just the tip of the iceberg. This is a new F1 season feeling, but this time it is all-new. The shakeup in the regulations means that we can’t call anything. And that’s more than okay. Sit back, enjoy this season and join us on AJontheLine for all of the biggest talking points.

Britain’s love affair with losers has helped Lewis’ UK popularity - but at what cost?

Last week, from the train to the pub to the water cooler (if they are even safe nowadays), the world was talking about Formula One. As somebody who had watched, talked about and introduced people to F1 since I was seven, the lead up to the weekend was many emotions. Mostly pride. 

Sadly, F1 has a habit of shooting itself in the foot. Last weekend, it chose a rocket launcher, forgetting meritocracy in pursuit of drama and creating controversy in the final laps of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix - listen to more on that here. 

As the world watched on, the victim of Sunday's cock up was Sir Lewis Hamilton. The seven-time world champion led 57 and a half of the 58 laps of the final race in which he needed to win to become champion. In the penultimate lap, decision-making by the Race Director (referee) gave Max Verstappen the advantage that he needed to overtake Hamilton and snatch the championship. Did Max deserve the championship? Yes. Should Lewis have been the champion? Unquestionably.

This week, F1 has been on the news and trending on social media, with a public outcry for an apparent injustice within the meritocratic realm of sport. From Piers Morgan to Samual L Jackson, the world was upset on Hamilton's behalf. The 'next goal wins' analogy has been thrown around and is a great way to describe what people who love F1 as much as I still don't understand. 

“What people love even more is seeing a champion fall, which is what happened on Sunday.”

People love a young champion who defies odds to represent their people on the world stage. Lewis Hamilton has been that and more for the past 15 years. What people love even more is seeing a champion fall, which is what happened on Sunday.

This wasn't a fall from grace or a question of being outclassed by a young buck. Lewis Hamilton has what it took to take on Max Verstappen in what is widely agreed to have been a minimally inferior car. Moreover, a broken Hamilton congratulated the Verstappen camp, losing with the dignity many would have not blamed him for putting to one side. Lewis' sportsmanship in the face of adversity was almost as awe-inspiring as the audacity required by the Race Director to break his own rules. 

“However, that pessimism might well have been the reason that the British public has never really taken to arguably their greatest sporting champion.” 

One of the first blog posts I wrote talked about how Britain's negativity niggled with its success in a sporting arena. By no means did the UK's pessimistic mentality impact the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. However, that pessimism might well have been the reason that the British public has never really taken to arguably their greatest sporting champion. 

Something changed on Sunday. The outcry in this country for the injustice (yes, I know there are more significant problems in the world) was massive. On top of this, you never heard anyone criticising Hamilton - something that has become the norm. But how could you? The guy has done everything, from driving to sportsmanship, perfectly. For once, there wasn't really a way that the media could spin it in a way that would make Lewis look bad. Like the England team in the Euros this summer, he had looked destined to win until it fell apart cruelly in the closing minutes. 

“But what impact has this daylight robbery had on the British superstar, who we forget is still a human?”

While he lost the championship, Lewis Hamilton seems to have finally won some British hearts. But what impact has this daylight robbery had on the British superstar, who we forget is still a human?

Lewis hasn't been on social media all week, he chose not to go to the FIA prize-giving gala and, other than the interview that he did immediately after the race before going to the podium, he has not done any interviews. He returned to his team's headquarters to celebrate Mercedes' team championship victory on Friday. Oh, and he got knighted at Windsor Castle on Wednesday. So it's been quite a week. 

He has no obligation to talk about the pain he may feel as he processes last weekend in his own time. However, it means that we can only glean information about his state of mind from what those close to him have said. His boss, Toto Wolff, is an excellent example of this. And probably the only one too. 

In a media session following Mercedes' decision not to take the Sunday's events to court, Wolff explained that neither he nor Lewis would ever get over the pain and stress. While this may sound dramatic from the outside, it makes you think. Imagine you have dedicated your life to something. You have plenty of other things that you could be pursuing. Still, your passion for that something is so great that you reach the verge of becoming the undisputed greatest. At that moment, the world watches on, and through no fault of your own, somebody changes the rules to let someone else beat you. 

“Changes are required in F1 if it wants to keep Lewis Hamilton and the spotlight that he brings.”

I fear that F1's biggest asset and ambassador is disillusioned. You wouldn't blame Lewis for walking away. However, you wouldn't blame him for living up to the 'bad loser' image that so many Britons seem to have of him when he lost on Sunday. Changes are required in F1 if it wants to keep Lewis Hamilton and the spotlight that he brings.

2022…

So long as he is mentally healthy and enjoying himself, I hope, and I believe that Lewis Hamilton will return next year. Worryingly for his competition, he is going to be stronger too. As we saw in Brazil this year, when his back is against the wall, that is when he shines the brightest. You then have to factor in Max Verstappen, who will be his biggest challenge next season, now armed with the experience of fighting for a championship. Let's not forget that significant changes are coming in terms of the cars, hopefully bringing them closer. With such changes, you can't rule Ferrari or McLaren out. All four drivers for those teams are top operators, but, for me, Charles Leclerc is the real deal.  

So while the final chapter of 2021 may be filled with controversy, do not despair with Formula One. If we had stopped watching football after Maradona's 'hand of God' intervened, we would have missed magical moments that include Lionel Messi. Like life, sport is unfair, injustice and can stab you in the back no matter how much love you show it. But with troughs come incredible peaks - I am grateful not to have missed Hungary, USA and Brazil, this year.

I can't guarantee another winner takes all decider, like this season. However, all being well, we will see the best driver on the planet fighting it out - this time, with more than two going for the championship. You wouldn't want to miss that. 

2021 has been a season for the ages, and I already can't wait for 2022. See you then.

Listen to the AJontheLine F1 2021 Season Review - out soon.

Turkish GP Race Report: World Porridge Day

On World Porridge Day, it was only fitting that Valtteri Bottas took a commanding victory in a cold and slippery Turkish Grand Prix. After all, porridge and coffee are what he puts his pace down to. 

These were conditions made for a man from Finland, who brushed off pressure from the wet weather specialist who is Max Verstappen. He wasn’t, however, the fastest in qualifying. Lewis Hamilton would have been on pole position were it not for the decision to change a part of his engine to alleviate any reliability concerns. But that didn’t matter. Valtteri wasn’t on pole for the same reason in Italy, so it was his time to shine. And he did just that.

The top three of Bottas, Verstappen and Leclerc stayed in formation for most of the race, with each driver comfortable enough to hold off the next. The exciting part of the race was going on behind them in the form of Lewis Hamilton and below them in the form of the wet track. 

Starting 11th after his groin penalty, Hamilton slowly but surely slices through the field, remaining conservative to not have a crash while Verstappen, his main rival for the championship, was ahead. Hamilton’s Mercedes was the fastest on the track, but he couldn’t make use of it for two reasons. He lost time looking for a way past slower cars such as Tsunoda and, consequently, eroded his tyres at a much higher rate than those at the front. 

A pivotal moment came when Hamilton caught Verstappen’s Red Bull teammate, Sergio Perez. The Mexican driver gave it his all to keep Hamilton behind and succeeded with some incredible defensive driving. This was hard and fair racing, right on the edge, reminiscent of Hamilton’s battle with Jenson Button in 2010 and the highlight of the race. It was critical for the championship too because it gave Bottas and Verstappen the chance to pit for fresh tyres ahead and secure second position. 

Soon after, Perez pitted, freeing Hamilton into fourth position. Of the leaders, it was just Hamilton and Leclerc not to have stopped for new tyres. It looked as if they could hold on, as though Leclerc could win and Hamilton could take fourth. But as the laps went on, the tyre life dropped off, allowing Bottas to retake the lead and causing Leclerc to abort the mission for fresher tyres. 

Mercedes, at this point, had already called Hamilton into the pit lane to avoid a similar story. However, the Brit had disregarded the call, believing that staying out would be the bolder but ultimately better decision to take third. Conservatism, however, prevailed, and eventually, Hamilton listened to Mercedes’ call to bring him in. This lost Hamilton places to Perez and Leclerc and a release of frustration over the radio by Hamilton. He would finish fifth, losing 8 points to Verstappen and falling 6 points behind in the championship - sub-optimal but better than a DNF due to an engine failure.

Happier were Ferrari and, in particular, Carlos Sainz. They outscored and outperformed their title rivals McLaren, despite the Spaniard of Sainz starting the race from the back with an engine penalty of his own. The fight for third in the Constructors Championship will be close, and McLaren will be nervous. 

Weekend Awards

Biggest Winner - Valtteri Bottas

Biggest Loser - Pierre Gasly

Moment of the Weekend - Hamilton vs PereZ

Honourable Mention - Ferrari
AJontheLine Line of the Week - I TOLD YOU (Lewis Hamilton)

The Turkish Grand Prix was no thriller, despite the rain. However, it was a tense and critical twist in the title fight, with many talking points. For analysis and an explanation on my choices for these awards, listen to our latest AJontheLine podcast, which will be out in the coming days.

3 Things to look out for as the 2021 F1 season resumes

F1 in 2021 has been scintillating so far. This year is one for the ages, with past legends returning to glory, new stars rising, and one of the fiercest battles for the championship ever. And we are only half of the way through. Here are the three things that you need to watch out for, from the end of the summer break in Belgium to the curtain falling with a chequered flag in Abu Dhabi. 

The Driver Market

‘Silly Season’ has begun - it’s time for those without contracts to sort out what they are doing next year. In this game of musical chairs, the music tends to stop once the most competitive seat is taken. Toto Wolff, therefore, has control of the pause button - when he decides between Valtteri Bottas and George Russell, the puzzle will fall into place. Who will he pick? Most think Russell and I tend to agree. 

If that’s the case, Bottas will be in high demand. There only seems to be spaces at Williams and Alfa Romeo, two of the least competitive teams this year. Will the Finn take a risk on the regulation changes next year, shaking up the grid, or will he call it a day in F1 and go rallying? Perhaps the answer to that question will impact the future of another Finn, Kimi Raikkonen. Or perhaps not. I sense that this, sadly, will be his last season in F1. New talent will join F1 next year, and there is plenty to choose from. I can see Nick De Vries going to Williams and Callum Ilott joining Alfa Romeo if there is room at an inn. 

When will Toto make the call? Will he leave it late to avoid a demotivated Bottas, or will he announce it early to give his driver time to find a new employer? I suspect Russell’s contract has been signed already, but it won’t be announced until Bottas’ future is sorted.

The Ferrari Resurgence

From what I hear, Ferrari has an engine upgrade on the way, just in time for Belgium and, crucially for them, Italy. The Prancing Horse’s engine being pegged back was why Ferrari lost so much ground to their rivals in 2020, so any improvements for Ferrari may allow them to catch McLarens and even the Mercedes and Red Bulls. 

Ferrari has shown decent pace in the first half of the season, but a tendency to go through their tyres too quickly has held them back. Despite these issues, Ferrari could have won in Monaco and Silverstone. F1 needs Ferrari at the sharp end of the grid. If the Scuderia can get their act together, they could add an Italian ingredient to the already exquisite concoction in the battle for Grand Prix victories.

The Title Battle

The bout between the legend of Lewis Hamilton and the pretender that is Max Verstappen has been compelling throughout the season so far, and it doesn't look set to end. We should expect more fireworks between the two drivers and controversy between the two teams. I have already predicted that there will be a coming together at the next race in Spa - you can read or hear more of that in the Hungarian GP report and podcast. 

The drivers' championship is on a knife-edge, making it very difficult to call. If I had to choose one, Hamilton just pips Verstappen - he's rich in championship battle experience, meaning that he will play a better percentage game in however many races remain. You've also got to factor in the looming engine penalties that Red Bull and Verstappen seem destined for. That being said, Mercedes could hit similar trouble as the season goes on. I wonder, too, whether a resurgent Ferrari will take points off the rivals, making the supporting cast just as essential to the conclusion as the protagonists.

Whoever comes out on top in this battle of the ages will deserve the title. We have the pleasure of watching how it unfolds, so enjoy it and come back for more news and views from the other analysts and me as Hamilton vs Verstappen resumes.

Styrian GP Report: Like an old friend

After the double-header in Austria that kicked off the 2020 season, the Red Bull Ring feels like an old friend to which to return. And maybe the familiarity was a reason for the unspectacular race. There is still plenty to discuss, though, so here’s your race report.

It seems as clear as a window now that Red Bull has made a step forward with their straight-line speed, leaving Mercedes behind. Max Verstappen was supreme all weekend, dominating in practice, storming to pole position in qualifying and walking away with it on race day.

Mercedes had a weekend similar to their race in France or an experience you may have in a museum - they weren’t far from Red Bull, but they couldn’t get close enough to touch them. This upturn in Red Bull pace is putting the world champions under pressure, leading to silly things like Valtteri Bottas spinning in the pit lane during practice. The spin gave the Finn a three-place grid penalty, which dropped him to fifth after he had initially qualified ahead of his teammate Hamilton. 

That meant that Verstappen and Hamilton started in front and drove off into the distance as they usually do. Lando Norris’ brilliant qualifying meant that he was in third position and a roadblock for Perez and Bottas. Perez did get through on the first lap, but Norris swept back around the outside with a bold move. Eventually, the number two drivers did get past before Bottas capitalised on a slow Red Bull pit stop to take third position. However, it was too late for them to catch Verstappen and Hamilton, who were already almost half a minute up the road.

Further back, Charles Leclerc was clumsy and drove into Pierre Gasly’s rear wheel as they jostled for position. This caused arguably the biggest drama of the race as a helpless Gasly tried in vain to avoid his competitors before retiring from the race. Leclerc needed to pit and then spent the rest of the race fighting his way back through the field with some great moves to finish seventh, just behind his teammate, Carlos Sainz.

George Russell was the drover keeping most fans on the edge of their seats as he looked on for his first points finish for Williams with genuinely good pace all weekend. Heart-breakingly, though, engine troubles hit, causing him to lose what would have been at least a ninth-place finish. Sadly, it was another would’ve, could’ve, should’ve situation for the young Brit.

There was no question who the winner was. Max Verstappen extended his lead by a further six points after a brilliant win over Lewis Hamilton, who minimised the pain by taking the fastest lap of the race.

Round 1 of 2 in Austria goes to Red Bull. Fitting, given that they own the circuit.

Biggest Winner: Ferrari 

After a dreadful French Grand Prix, Ferrari outscored their main rivals, McLaren, with a solid P6 and P7 finish. Carlos Sainz was close to catching Lando Norris. You can only wonder what Charles Leclerc could have managed had he not had his scruffy lap one incident. Ferrari needs to ensure that they maximise their performance next weekend at the Austrian Grand Prix because this is encouraging. It’s just a question of whether they can coax the softer tyres home.

Biggest Loser: Pierre Gasly 

Pierre and Alpha Tauri as a whole were on fire this weekend and were it not for his lap one retirement, which wasn’t his fault, I believe Pierre would have been in the fight with Norris and Sainz for fifth position. I predict a strong showing next weekend from Pierre, and I’m looking forward to it.

Moment of the Weekend: George Russell’s brilliance

Another shining light this weekend was George. In another weekend where rumours of him replacing Bottas at Mercedes swirled, George did his reputation no harm by qualifying 11th, narrowly missing out on the top ten shoot out. A penalty for Tsunoda meant that George then started 10th with a free choice of starting tyres. All things pointed to the Brit scoring his first points for Williams with a super start, running comfortably in the top 10. However, engine issues hit, forcing him to retire from the race. Gutting.

Honourable Mention: Hamilton’s save in the race at turn 4 

It was a moment that you may have missed, but Lewis was giving it everything to catch Max in his slower Mercedes, and it was showing. Exiting turn four, the champion ran slightly wide and nearly lost the rear of the car. But like Odell Beckham Jr, Hamilton had a great catch in his locker, and he delivered it.

AJontheLine Line of the week: Valtteri Bottas after his pit lane spin

“How’s the tyre warm-up”

It was a dry piece of Finnish humour that caught my attention. After spinning in the pit lane, most of us would have been rattled but not Valtteri. He inquired about the warm-up of his incident with his tongue firmly in his cheek - the answer: sub-optimal.

So Styria goes to Max but will the potential wet weather spice things up in the same neck of the woods this weekend? Let’s find out together.

Belgian GP Race Report: Spa day for some, choppy waters for others.

When you are playing the word association game, 'Spa-Francorchamps 'is usually followed by 'speed' or 'classic' or 'balls (big)'. While the latter did feature, this week's Belgian Grand Prix was neither fast nor a classic. Given that this was a Formula One race, that's a bit of an issue. Despite the teams opting to coax their tyres home, to avoid a second pit stop, there were some great drives, overtakes and talking points. Here they are.

“Even Lewis' mistakes are playing into his hands.”

We shall begin with the bit with which we are getting well-practised. Lewis Hamilton took another victory. Not exactly a shock, nevertheless, well-deserved. 

In qualifying, Hamilton out-qualified Valtteri Bottas, his teammate, by half a second - a slap in the face in racing terms. Hamilton even surprised himself as he continually found time that others couldn't. The world champion seemed to make the difference throughout the weekend in the technical and twisty second sector. Bottas would qualify second, just a hundredth ahead of the ever-impressive Max Verstappen. In fourth was Daniel Ricciardo, who had the fastest first sector and a massive smile beneath his mask. 

In Belgium, starting from the front doesn't always translate to success. The long straights, at the beginning of the lap, that leads to the chicane of Les Combes provide a brilliant opportunity to grab a slipstream by driving behind the car ahead. Last year, for example, we had four cars side by side at the end of the Kemmel Straight, as the difference in drag brought others into play. With a front four of two Mercedes, a feisty Dutchman and a box-office Aussie, the race start was one to watch. 

When it came down to it, Hamilton made a mistake and got on the power too early exiting the first corner. This gave him a snap of oversteer that he lost a fraction of time correcting. As a result, Bottas got a much better exit. Heading up Eau Rouge, the drivers go in single file before fighting it out on the Kemmel Straight. Bottas caught Hamilton just as they were entering Eau Rouge, meaning that he needed to lift off the throttle momentarily, losing him momentum. Consequently, Hamilton scampered down the straight unthreatened, allowing him to check out and not look back. Even Lewis' mistakes are playing into his hands. 

Meanwhile, Ricciardo and Verstappen had a squabble over third as they made their way through the opening lap. Ricciardo licked the stamp and sent it down the inside of Les Combes. Verstappen would still hold on around the outside to the podium position in which he would eventually finish. 

From there, Hamilton and Mercedes controlled the race, keeping the gap just so. In the post-race press conference, Hamilton once again expressed his disappointment at having won unchallenged. He wants people to bring the fight to him, but with the current regulations, Mercedes are the team to beat, and they seem unbeatable. That is not their fault. However, it is a shame that Hamilton doesn't have more battles with Verstappen, Alonso, Vettel or anyone else that may be considered at his level. In short, he has Bottas in his back pocket. Mercedes are comfortable with that. Why would they not be, they got a 1-2 finish? Hopefully, the regulation changes in the coming years, designed to close up the field, will do what they say on the tin.

“Belgium was an excellent result for the team and encouraging for Alonso to see as he prepares to jump into Ricciardo's vacated seat next season.”

Behind the top three to whom we have become accustomed, Renault bagged plenty of points, putting a rather disappointing weekend in Spain behind them. As mentioned, Ricciardo did a super job in qualifying to get onto the second row. His teammate, Esteban Ocon, started behind him, in sixth. Following a tidy race, Renault came fourth and fifth. Arguably, it was close between Renault and Red Bull for the second quickest car this weekend. Renault were low on downforce, allowing their slippery car to fly along the long straights that Spa has to offer. With the fastest lap on the last lap, Riccardo needed just one more tour to catch and trouble Verstappen. Renault clearly take care of their tyres, keeping life in them until the very end. Belgium was an excellent result for the team and encouraging for Alonso to see as he prepares to jump into Ricciardo's vacated seat next season.

“The message read 'prove them wrong'. This weekend, he continued his run of doing just that.”

There was a trio of drivers who got the fastest three laps and were the contenders for the driver of the day. One of them won the race, one of them got the fastest lap, and Pierre Gasly was voted driver of the day. 

Last year, the Frenchman lost his best friend, Anthoine Hubert, in a Formula 2 accident at the Belgian Grand Prix weekend. That week, Pierre had been swapped back to the Red Bull junior team, Toro Rosso, following a string of tough races. A couple of weeks ago, he returned to his home in France to find that he has been burgled. The last year has challenged us all, not least, Pierre Gasly. 

Allegedly, one of the first people to send Pierre a message after being dropped by Red Bull was from Hubert. The message read 'prove them wrong'. This weekend, he continued his run of doing just that. Starting, twelfth, Gasly was disappointed with qualifying. A blistering start would see Gasly rise through the field with some fine overtaking - most notably overtaking Sergio Perez around the outside on the entry to Eau Rouge, the very place his friend had died a year ago. I did say that there were some ballsy moments. 

An ill-timed safety car would see Gasly's strategy compromised, leading to him dropping to the bottom of the field. Further fine overtaking would see the Frenchman shoot back up the standings to take eighth position - not a bad effort given the circumstances. Without the safety car, I feel he could have finished in the top six at the rate that he was going. Either way, it was an impressive drive, and I stand by my prediction that he will head to Renault in the coming years.

“In hindsight, they couldn’t even win a championship with an illegal engine, which says a lot.”

While others enjoyed their Spa day, Ferrari find themselves in choppy waters. We shouldn't be surprised about Ferrari's result of P13 and P14 given their pace (or lack of it) this year. However, it is worse than we realised. Whatever they had been doing with their engine that they shouldn't have must have taken place for a while, because the step back in performance seems to be years rather than a year. The Ferrari drivers nearly came together, which would have been the final nail in the coffin. Instead, Kimi Räikkönen, in an Alfa Romeo - a Ferrari engine customer - beat both Ferraris. This result indicates that it is more than the engine that is contributing to Ferrari's woes. Something is simply not working at Ferrari. In hindsight, they couldn’t even win a championship with an illegal engine, which says a lot.

The following two races take place in Italy, the second of which is Ferrari's 1000th race. Ferrari will be glad that there are no fans - there might otherwise have been a revolt. 

If Bottas wants to win a world championship, he needs to start making Lewis uncomfortable, and quickly. The chances of that happening decrease by the race. What is more likely, and my prediction for Italy, is that Renault score their first podium since returning to the sport in 2016. As I said in last weeks article, Ricciardo on a podium is almost as good as Ricciardo on the track. Failing that, Ocon will spray champagne in Formula One for the first time. 

Tune in next week to find out.